互联网金融的信用风险评估与预警研究

随着互联网金融的蓬勃发展，用户对消费金融的需求也越来越丰富多样。满足用户的多样化需求与建立健全风险监管体系成为互联网金融发展的重中之重。如何实现数据驱动服务升级、技术辅助市场监管成为研究的热点问题。本文通过数据处理与特征工程实现用户认证信息、金融信息、行为信息的融合，利用深度森林算法建立模型进行信用风险评估。结果表明，该方法能有效挖掘数据潜在价值，提高信用风险评估与预警效果。最后，本文针对互联网金融的信用风险预警与市场监管提出了建议。     

Performance of success and failure in grassroots conservation and development interventions: Gender dynamics in participatory forest management in India

Co-governance of forests, or participatory forest management, has been a wide-spread conservation and development (C&D) intervention in India for over two decades. The practice began in the 1990s as Joint Forest Management (JFM), where local communities – organised into forest protection committees (FPCs) – worked in cooperation with various state forest departments. Later on, this intervention took shape of Community Forest Management (CFM), where communities managed their forests largely independent of the forest departments. Under both the JFM and CFM models, gender mainstreaming – enabling equal distribution of opportunities and services across genders – held a pivotal position. This study shows that despite continued marginalisation, female FPC members often performed as if initiatives were successful. Thus, the central question investigated in this paper is: "Why women performed success in participatory forest management interventions while experiencing marginalisation in the FPC?” This paper adopts an ethnographic case study methodology (immersion), utilising in-depth ethnographic case studies from three states of India for analysing performances of success and the resulting dynamics of participation, to explain the gendered nuances of the grassroots conservation and development interventions. The concept of 'situated agency' of community actors is explored to understand the practices around the performances of success in C&D interventions in forest-dependent communities in India. The paper argues that these performances hold the promise of a slow, but steady progress towards the creation of a gender-sensitive system in an otherwise patriarchal social structure.     

Investor attention,firm-specific characteristic,and momentum: A case of the Korean stock market

This study examines the sources of negative momentum profits by combining investor attention and the properties of common and firm-specific factors. We choose the Korean stock market as a good case to characterize the negative momentum profits identified in Asia. In both portfolio and stock analyses, a method is devised to generate return data involving the property of each common and firm-specific factor within stock groups by investor attention. This study found significant negative momentum profits within the stock group with high investor attention. This momentum effect is highly dependent on the reversed performance of the past loser portfolio, not the continued performance of the past winner portfolio, and this reversal is strongly attributable to the properties of firm-specific factors, and not those of common factors. These results are robustly consistent regardless of changes in empirical design and the consideration of influence factors, market dynamics, and other stock markets.     

How forestland size affects household profits from timber harvests: A case-study in China’s Southern collective forest area

To improve the economies of scale in forest management and reduce the fragmentation of forestland, the Chinese central government has implemented a collective forest tenure supplementary reform since 2008. This has included a series of policies for motivating transfer of forestlands use rights among households in the country’s Southern Collective Forest Area (SCFA). However, to date there is little evidence that large-scale forest owners can earn more profits from timber harvests than small-scale forest owners in the SCFA. Using data collected from household surveys in the three of the SCFA’s provinces in 2016, this paper examines the return to scale of forestland ownership for timber harvests in this region, and how the scale of forestland ownership affects households’ profits from timber harvests. The results show a constant return to scale in timber harvests in the case provinces in China’s SCFA, that forestland area makes the most important contribution to the output of timber harvests, and that fragmentation of forestland results in lower profits from timber harvests. It appears that a moderate scale of forestland ownership should be identified for increasing the profits from timber harvests. With the rapid urbanization throughout China, an increase in off-farm employment among rural household members has a negative impact on timber harvests in the region. We argue that policymakers should realize the importance of encouraging the forestland transfers and improve the concentration of forestlands in the next stage of forest tenure rights reform in China’s SCFA.     

国有林场贫困测定与差异性研究

基于2008—2017年国家林业局对中国28个省(市、区)国有林场的调研数据,运用等价性检验的方法从地理位置、经济状况、可持续经营和发展能力层面上对国有林场的贫困测度和差异性进行实证分析。研究结果表明:国有贫困林场不一定位于贫困县,并且与国有非贫困林场之间的差异逐渐缩小;国有贫困林场区域异质性强,经济发展水平较低;国有贫困林场在森林资源基础、人力资源基础、基础设施和生产条件等方面的可持续发展能力较差。因此,提出了相关林业部门应该鼓励国有贫困林场发展特色林产品;加大扶贫资金投入;改善职工生计条件;加强资金管理意识等政策建议。     

Beyond the community in participatory forest management: A governance network perspective

Governance of the environment and natural resources involves interests of multiple stakeholders at different scales. In community-based forest management, organisations outside of communities play important roles in achieving multiple social and ecological objectives. How and when these organisations play a role in the community-based forest management process remains a key question. We applied social network analysis to a case study in Indonesian Borneo to better understand the evolution of interactions between organisational actors, and with communities. NGOs featured most prominently in initiating the permit process, implementing management, and providing other support activities, while also being well-connected to donors and government actors. The network configurations indicated significant cooperation among organisations when initiating the community forest process, while bridging between village and organisational levels characterised all stages of the community forest process. While community-based forest management often evokes images of grassroots efforts and broad local capacity to manage forests, reality shows a more dynamic and heterogeneous picture and broader involvement of different actor types and motivations in Indonesia. These findings can be applied to other countries implementing and expanding their decentralised forest policies.     

Incorporating active adjustment into a financing based model of capital structure

The conventional partial adjustment model, which focuses on leverage evolution, has difficulty identifying deliberate capital structure adjustments as it confounds financing decisions with the mechanical autocorrelation of leverage. We propose and estimate a financing-based partial adjustment model that separates the effects of financing decisions on leverage evolution from mechanical evolution. The speed of adjustment (SOA) is firm-specific and stochastic, and active targeting of capital structure has a multiplier effect that depends on the size of financial deficit. Overall, we find expected SOA from active rebalancing (30%) more than doubles what is expected from mechanical mean reversion alone (13%).     

日本掠夺东北森林资源对生态环境的破坏和影响 ——以松花江流域为例

日伪时期,松花江流域的森林资源遭受到日本侵略者的疯狂采伐。日本侵略者通过修建森林铁路将大量砍伐的木材运往国内,同时在东北地区开设一系列制材工厂以满足其战时需求。日本殖民者对森林资源的破坏严重影响了流域内的生态环境,造成水土流失加剧,旱涝灾害频发,大量珍贵动植物数量减少,松花江水质污染、空气污染严重,对战时乃至战后人民的生产生活造成极大危害。     

The Gender Wealth Gap in Europe: Application of Machine Learning to Predict Individual-level Wealth

This article provides comparative estimates of the gender wealth gaps for 22 European countries, employing data from the Household Finance and Consumption Survey. The data on wealth are collected at the household level, while individual-level data are needed for the estimates of gender wealth gaps. We propose a novel approach using machine learning and model averaging methods to predict individual-level wealth data for multi-person households. Our results suggest that random forest performs best as the predicting tool for this exercise, outperforming elastic net and Bayesian model averaging. The estimated gender wealth gaps tend to be in favor of men, especially at the top of the wealth distribution. Men have 24 percent more wealth than women on average. We also find that a high home ownership rate is associated with a smaller country-level gender wealth gap. Our estimates suggest that the individual-level wealth inequality is on average 3 pp higher than the household-level wealth inequality in multi-member households.